The Mathematical Anatomy of the Gambler's Fallacy. Issue 1 (2nd January 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tijms, Steven
• Is Part Of: Chance. Volume 35:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 11
• Page End: 17
• Publication Date: 2022-01-02
• Subjects: Statistics -- Periodicals; Mathematical statistics -- Periodicals; Mathematical statistics -- Data processing -- Periodicals; Probablities -- Periodicals; 519.205
• DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2038998
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0933-2480

Abstract

Abstract : The classic explanation of the gambler's fallacy, proposed exactly fifty years ago by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, describes the fallacy as a cognitive bias resulting from the psychological makeup of human judgment. We will show that the gambler's fallacy is not in fact a psychological phenomenon, but has its roots in the counter-intuitive mathematics of chance.