The Mathematical Anatomy of the Gambler's Fallacy. Issue 1 (2nd January 2022) - Tijms, Steven
Abstract : The classic explanation of the gambler's fallacy, proposed exactly fifty years ago by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, describes the fallacy as a cognitive bias resulting from the psychological makeup of human judgment. We will show that the gambler's fallacy is not in fact a psychological phenomenon, but has its roots in the counter-intuitive mathematics of chance.