Nomogram to Predict the Survival of Chinese Patients with Alcohol-Related Liver Disease. (27th September 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Duan, Fangfang; Liu, Chen; Liu, Yuwei; Chang, Chunyan; Zhai, Hang; Xing, Huichun; Cheng, Jun; Yang, Song
• Other Names: Solimando Antonio Giovanni Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Canadian journal of gastroenterology & hepatology. Volume 2021(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-09-27
• Subjects: Digestive organs -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Gastroenterology -- Periodicals; Digestive organs -- Diseases; Gastroenterology; Canada; Digestive System Diseases -- Periodicals; Gastroenterology -- Periodicals; Periodicals; Electronic journals; Fulltext; Internet Resources; Periodicals; 616.3
• DOI: 10.1155/2021/4073503
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2291-2789

Abstract

Abstract : Objectives . Alcohol-related liver disease is an increasing public health burden in China, but there is a lack of models to predict its prognosis. This study established a nomogram for predicting the survival of Chinese patients with alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). Methods . Hospitalized alcohol-related liver disease patients were retrospectively enrolled from 2015 to 2018 and followed up for 24 months to evaluate survival profiles. A total of 379 patients were divided into a training cohort ( n = 265) and validation cohort ( n = 114). Cox proportional hazard survival analysis identified survival factors of the patients in the training cohort. A nomogram was built and internally validated. Results . The 3-month, 6-month, 12-month, and 24-month survival rates for the training cohort were 82.6%, 81.1%, 74.3%, and 64.5%, respectively. The Cox analysis showed relapse (P = 0.001 ), cirrhosis (P = 0.044 ), liver cancer (P < 0.001 ), and a model for end-stage liver diseases score of ≥21 (P = 0.041 ) as independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was built, which predicted the survival of patients in the training cohort with a concordance index of 0.749 and in the internal validation cohort with a concordance index of 0.756. Conclusion . The long-term survival of Chinese alcohol-related liver disease patients was poor with a 24-month survival rate of 64.5%. Relapse, cirrhosis, liver cancer, and a model for end-stage liver disease score of ≥21 were independent risk factors for those patients. A nomogram was developed and internally validated for predicting the probability of their survival at different time points.