The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: The case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus. (September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Verikios, George
• Is Part Of: Socio-economic planning sciences. Number 71(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-09
• Subjects: Computable general equilibrium -- Human coronavirus -- COVID-19 -- Infectious diseases -- Pandemic influenza -- Periodicity -- Trade linkages; E32 -- F15 -- I18; Planning -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Social policy -- Periodicals; Planification -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Politique sociale -- Périodiques; ECONOMIC PLANNING; SOCIAL PLANNING; DECISION-MAKING; 361
• DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2020.100898
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0038-0121

Abstract

Abstract: Pandemic influenza is a regularly recurring form of infectious disease; this work analyses its economic effects. Like many other infectious diseases influenza pandemics are usually of short, sharp duration. Human coronavirus is a less regularly recurring infectious disease. The human coronavirus pandemic of 2019 (COVID-19) has presented with seemingly high transmissibility and led to extraordinary socioeconomic disruption due to severe preventative measures by governments. To understand and compare these events, epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of a pandemic from regional populations to regional economies and then across regional economies. In contrast to past pandemics, COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects given the greater uncertainty surrounding its nature. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to the risk-modifying behaviour in the form of preventative measures taken in response to the latest novel pandemic virus. Highlights: The dynamic effects of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission from regional populations to regional economies. COVID-19 is likely to be of longer duration and more severe in its economic effects than previous pandemics. The analysis indicates how economies are likely to be affected due to risk-mitigating preventative measures.