How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany. (July 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Albers, Hakon; Gornott, Christoph; Hüttel, Silke
• Is Part Of: Food policy. Volume 70(2017)
• Page Start: 50
• Page End: 61
• Publication Date: 2017-07
• Subjects: Yield -- Wheat -- Variability -- Risk -- Weather -- Common Agricultural Policy; Food supply -- Periodicals; Food security -- Periodicals; Food -- Quality -- Periodicals; Food Supply -- Periodicals; Alimentation -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 338.1905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-9192

Abstract

Highlights: Decomposes wheat yield volatility in input- and weather-driven categories. Rich data set with inputs, weather and phenology. Relating yield and weather offers valid approximations for climate impact research. Abstract: Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research.