Driving the Future: A Management Flight Simulator of the US Automobile Market. (December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Keith, David R.; Naumov, Sergey; Sterman, John
• Is Part Of: Simulation & gaming. Volume 48:Number 6(2017:Dec.)
• Page Start: 735
• Page End: 769
• Publication Date: 2017-12
• Subjects: alternative fuel vehicles -- management flight simulator -- simulation -- strategy -- policy analysis; Social sciences -- Study and teaching -- Periodicals; Simulation methods -- Periodicals; Game theory -- Periodicals; Sciences sociales -- Étude et enseignement -- Périodiques; Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Jeu de rôle -- Périodiques; Éducation; Jeu d'entreprise; Jeu de simulation; Méthode de simulation; Sciences sociales; Théorie des jeux; Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 003.3
• DOI: 10.1177/1046878117737807
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1046-8781

Abstract

Background. A significant gap exists in the United States between ambitious regulatory goals requiring firms to introduce hybrid and electric vehicles, and consumer adoption of these technologies to date. However, the interventions required to close this gap are not obvious due to the complex feedbacks and time delays that governalternative fuel vehicle (AFV) diffusion . Purpose. The purpose of this article is to introduce Driving the Future (DtF), a free, web-basedmanagement flight simulator to explore the effects of automaker strategies and public policies on the US automotive market. Method. We develop a behavioral, dynamic model portraying multiple automobile and fuel types, fueling infrastructure, and consumer choices, enabling users to rapidly experiment with how a wide array of decisions and assumptions shape the dynamics of AFV diffusion out to 2050. Results. We describe how the simulator can be used to explore various scenarios for AFV adoption, and discuss how the simulator can help improve mental models and decision-making. We present evidence from classroom and online experiments, demonstrating that the simulation is both effective in developing users' understanding of AFV diffusion dynamics, and enjoyable to use.