The Universe Had One Chance. Issue 2 (April 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Demarest, Heather
• Is Part Of: Philosophy of science. Volume 83:Issue 2(2016)
• Page Start: 248
• Page End: 264
• Publication Date: 2016-04
• Subjects: Science -- Periodicals; Science -- Philosophy; Science; Science -- Philosophy; Philosophie des sciences; Epistemology; Periodicals; 501
• DOI: 10.1086/684914
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1539-767X

Abstract

Abstract : In a deterministically evolving world, the usefulness of nontrivial probabilities can seem mysterious. I use the 'Mentaculus' machinery developed by David Albert and Barry Loewer to show how all probabilities in such a world can be derived from a single, initial chance event. I go on to argue that this is the only genuine chance event. Perhaps surprisingly, we have good evidence of its existence and nature. I argue that the existence of this chance event justifies our epistemic reliance on nontrivial probabilities.