The Role of Expert Judgment in Statistical Inference and Evidence-Based Decision-Making. (29th March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Brownstein, Naomi C.; Louis, Thomas A.; O'Hagan, Anthony; Pendergast, Jane
• Is Part Of: American statistician. Volume 73(2019)Supplement 1
• Page Start: 56
• Page End: 68
• Publication Date: 2019-03-29
• Subjects: Bayesian paradigm -- Clinical trials -- Collaboration -- Elicitation -- Scientific method -- Subjectivity; Statistics -- Periodicals; 001.42205
• DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2018.1529623
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0003-1305

Abstract

ABSTRACT: This article resulted from our participation in the session on the "role of expert opinion and judgment in statistical inference" at the October 2017 ASA Symposium on Statistical Inference. We present a strong, unified statement on roles of expert judgment in statistics with processes for obtaining input, whether from a Bayesian or frequentist perspective. Topics include the role of subjectivity in the cycle of scientific inference and decisions, followed by a clinical trial and a greenhouse gas emissions case study that illustrate the role of judgments and the importance of basing them on objective information and a comprehensive uncertainty assessment. We close with a call for increased proactivity and involvement of statisticians in study conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, and communication.