Where Terror Lies: Misrepresentation of Extremist Attitudes and Terrorist Attacks in the Sahel. Issue 4 (19th May 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Finkel, Steven E.; McCauley, John F.; Neureiter, Michael; Belasco, Christopher A.
• Is Part Of: Terrorism and political violence. Volume 35:Issue 4(2023)
• Page Start: 888
• Page End: 907
• Publication Date: 2023-05-19
• Subjects: Violent extremism -- preference falsification -- terrorist attacks -- Africa -- experiment; Terrorism -- Periodicals; Violence -- Periodicals; 303.62505
• DOI: 10.1080/09546553.2021.1987893
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0954-6553

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Researchers have commonly treated misrepresentations in survey responses as an impediment to the accurate measurement of a variable or construct of substantive importance. This study builds on that approach and considers whether misreporting bias regarding support for violent extremism—both under- and over-reporting—may then have consequences for how terrorist violence itself unfolds. Using data from nearly 4, 000 respondents in thirty-five communes in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger collected just prior to a recent wave of terrorist attacks, we find that communes where individuals under-report their true support for violent extremism—as measured with unobtrusive experimental methods—have a greater probability of experiencing subsequent Islamist attacks, controlling for socio-demographic characteristics of the commune, country-level proximity effects, and other time-varying factors. The findings raise important considerations regarding the measurement of extremist support, and they suggest a new tool for identifying communities potentially susceptible to terrorist violence.