Delphi-based future scenarios: A bibliometric analysis of climate change case studies. (May 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Calleo, Yuri; Pilla, Francesco
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 149(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-05
• Subjects: Future studies -- Delphi-based scenarios -- Climate change -- Bibliometric analysis; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103143
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Abstract: In the Future Studies context, the scenario development process is an established method for the identification of future projections, useful to avoid future threats and take different actions in the present. The development of future scenarios is often combined with different participatory approaches, one among many is the Delphi method, widely adopted for its systematic and interactive nature. In this context, the recent climate challenges lead society to an exponential growth of uncertainty about the future where Delphi-based scenarios (DBS) could be helpful to identify interesting mid and long-term projections. For the purpose of conducting a systematic review of Delphi-based future scenarios applied to climate change context, we used a quantitative bibliometric analysis aimed at investigating the scientific literature path, implementing it with a multiple correspondence analysis and a semantic network analysis. We illustrate the results of the case studies focusing on the combination of methods, rounds of the process, panellists' sampling, time horizon, and techniques used, to establish new guidelines for future Delphi-based climate research projects. Highlights: Scenario planning and Delphi-method can be of support to climate change studies. Bibliographic data constitute a valuable source to review the scientific literature. The development of Delphi-based future scenarios has different open challenges. In the climate change context, guidelines for Delphi-based scenarios could help climate practitioners.