Types of scenario planning and their effectiveness: A review of reviews. (May 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cordova-Pozo, Kathya; Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A.
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 149(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-05
• Subjects: Scenario planning schools -- Concept of scenario -- Scenario techniques -- Scenario process -- Scenario planning effectiveness -- Uncertainty; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103153
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Abstract: Scenario planning is a popular approach for addressing uncertainty in strategic decision making. An open and adaptable approach from its inception, scenario planning has developed into separate schools and is now used across a wide range of research fields and practical settings. Reviews point to three challenges that limit the spread and the usefulness of scenario planning: conceptual confusion, methodological chaos, and scarcity of evidence on its effectiveness. This review of reviews brings together recent insights offered by the literature that suggest that these challenges have been partly met. A recent proposal for a synthesized definition of what a scenario is turns out to capture novel definitions quite well. The overarching term scenario planning covers a confusing diversity of methods and techniques. Nevertheless, within each of the separate schools the range of methodological choices is more restricted and arguments for choosing between options are clearer. Finally, while there is indeed a scarcity of research into effectiveness of scenario planning, on the level of specific techniques there is evidence of impact. This paper contributes to the literature on scenario analysis. For practitioners this paper provides more clarity on how to implement scenario planning, in terms of available process designs, how to choose between them and which techniques can help in implementation and how to measure effectiveness. Highlights: Scenarios are plausible sets of narrated alternatives. Its construction may include participation, time, goal, and validation. Different schools highlight the external factors, coherent narrative, differentiated sets, uncertainty and knowledge. Most used techniques are dynamic scenarios and cognitive fuzzy maps. A detailed adherance to the technical process can improve scenario practice and reporting for effectiveness.