Assessment of the global energy transition: Based on trade embodied energy analysis. (15th June 2023) - Zheng, Shuxian
Abstract: Based on the extended environmental input-output model and complex network theory, this paper reviews and evaluates the global energy transition based on the principle of shared responsibility, and identifies the key countries affecting the energy transition from the perspective of embodied energy. The results show that although the proportion of clean energy and renewable energy use remains low (only 34.6% and 8.8%), the global energy transition process has progressed rapidly in the past 20 years. From 2000 to 2016, global energy consumption decreased global warming potential (GWP) by 18.7%, acidification potential (AP) decreased by 33.37%, but eutrophication potential (EP) increased by 28.42%. The United States is the largest contributor to the global energy transition, with a total reduction of 1.52 × 10^5 Mt CO2 -eq, 148.32 Mt SO2 -eq and 12.4 Mt P O 4 3 − -eq through the energy transition. The energy-consumption emissions from China and other developing countries show an increasing trend (From 2000 to 2016, China increased its emissions by 1.49 × 10^5 Mt CO2 -eq, 65.09 Mt SO2 -eq and 76.64 Mt P O 4 3 − -eq). With the slowdown of economic growth and the promotion of energy transition, the growth rate of energy-consumption emissions gradually decreases. Considering embodied energy plays an important role in the scientific evaluation of global energy transition. Under the principle of shared responsibility, ignoring embodied energy is expected to overestimate China's GWP by 4.5%, AP by 3.7%, and EP by 7.4%, and underestimate America's GWP by 10.5%, AP by 7.48%, and EP by 12.5%. We, therefore, focus on the transfer of pollution due to embodied energy and find that China, Russia, India, and South Africa are important agents for the embodied pollution transfer between communities. Highlights: Consider the impact of embodied energy on energy transition assessments. Identifying key countries affecting energy transition from embodied energy. Calculated the energy transition process of each country. Measure the energy transition process from multiple perspectives.