Bayesian forecast of the basic reproduction number during the Covid-19 epidemic in Morocco and Italy. Issue 4 (2nd October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: El Fatini, Mohamed; El Khalifi, Mohamed; Gerlach, Richard; Pettersson, Roger
• Is Part Of: Mathematical population studies. Volume 28:Issue 4(2021)
• Page Start: 228
• Page End: 242
• Publication Date: 2021-10-02
• Subjects: Basic reproduction number -- Bayes' theorem -- COVID-19 -- epidemic model -- stochastic diffusion; Demography -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Demography -- Mathematics -- Periodicals; 304.60724
• DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2021.1941661
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0889-8480

Abstract

ABSTRACT: In a Covid-19 susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model with time-varying rates of transmission, recovery, and death, the parameters are constant in small time intervals. A posteriori parameters result from the Euler-Maruyama approximation for stochastic differential equations and from Bayes' theorem. Parameter estimates and 10-day predictions are performed based on Moroccan and Italian Covid-19 data. Mean absolute errors and mean square errors indicate that predictions are of good quality.