Conditional uncertainty: Misinterpretations of "significant" p values. Issue 11 (31st August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Messinger Cayetano, Shari; Mantero, Alejandro
• Is Part Of: Journal of cardiac surgery. Volume 36:Issue 11(2021)
• Page Start: 4332
• Page End: 4334
• Publication Date: 2021-08-31
• Subjects: conditional probability -- NPV -- p value -- PPV -- sensitivity -- specificity; Heart -- Surgery -- Periodicals; 617.412005
• DOI: 10.1111/jocs.15963
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0886-0440

Abstract

Abstract: Misapplication of p values can lead to very misleading conclusions. The frequent insignificance of a "significant" p value 1 provides examples illustrating situations where p values are misused in interpretation and describes alternatives to p values to consider. The concern about p values, and their potential shortcomings and misinterpretations, has been widely discussed and has received a lot of debate from the statistical community. While we agree with much of the content presented in the article, the issue fundamentally represents a misinterpretation of conditional probability, misapplication of measures regarding diagnostic accuracy, and consequently violations of assumptions inherent in experimental design and the validity of many approaches to statistical analysis and inference. One way this can be remedied is through team science, and collaboration between clinical and biostatistical scientists in research.