Projected harmful algal bloom frequency in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters. (January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guo, Haixia; Cai, Rongshuo; Tan, Hongjian
• Is Part Of: Marine environmental research. Volume 183(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-01
• Subjects: Climate change -- Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters -- Phytoplankton -- HAB -- BP neural Network -- Tipping point; Marine pollution -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Marine ecology -- Periodicals; Mer -- Pollution -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; Écologie marine -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 577.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105832
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0141-1136

Abstract

Abstract: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a frequent occurrence in China's offshore waters due to climate change and human activity, particularly in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters. Here, we studied HABs and their relationship with climatic and environmental factors in these waters from 1979 to 2016 using historical observations and reanalysis data. We then projected HABs frequency under various climate scenarios using the "environmental impact factor-frequency of HABs" mathematical model built using the BP neural network method and CIMP5 model data (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The results suggest a significant positive correlation between HABs frequency and seawater nutrient concentration, winter sea surface temperature, and low-wind days, and HABs frequency is anticipated to increase significantly by the 2040s compared with that of the historical era. Furthermore, future phytoplankton conditions are predicted to favor HAB species. Highlights: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the Yangtze River Estuary and adjacent waters. Modeling the relationship of occurrence with climatic and environmental factors. Tool to accurately predict future trends in HAB outbreaks. Phytoplankton conditions are predicted to favor HAB species.