Forecasting the self-sufficiency rate of China's energy by the hybrid gray models. Issue 1 (31st December 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fan, Decheng; Pang, Cholho; Kim, Jongsu; Jon, Song; Gu, Xiaomei
• Is Part Of: Energy sources. Volume 45:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: 2999
• Page End: 3018
• Publication Date: 2023-12-31
• Subjects: Energy demand -- self-sufficiency rate -- hybrid gray model -- forecasting -- strategy; Natural resources -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Climatic factors -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Environment aspects -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1080/15567036.2019.1667458
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1556-7036

Abstract

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we forecast the self-sufficiency rate of China's total energy and energy compositions by two-hybrid gray models: the improved non-homogeneous gray model and nash non-linear gray multivariable model, and provide some significant data for energy policy. At first, we propose newly the improved one variable gray model (INHGM-Markov) which combines the non-homogeneous gray model (NHGM(1, 1)) with Markov chain model and forecast the production and consumption amount of China's total energy. The results show that the production and consumption amount increase slowly after 2012 and the values are 3660.10 and 4584.04 million tons of SCE in 2022. Next, the production and consumption percents of the energy compositions are simulated with the improved nash nonlinear gray multivariable model (INNGM(1, N)). In 2022, the production percents estimated to be 51.56, 7.55, 8.54, and 32.35%, respectively, for coal, crude oil, natural gas and others energy as the energy compositions, while the consumption percents 47.01, 21.82, 8.72, and 22, 45%. The production and consumption amount of coal energy have a maximum values around 2013 and 2014, and then decrease until 1887.19 and 2154.88 million tons of SCE in 2022. Finally, the forecasting values of the self-sufficiency rates of the total energy and the energy compositions are determined to be 0.79, 0.88, 0.27, 0.78, and 1.15, which means that China government should focus on securing energy resource, especially crude oil and natural gas energy, for the sustainable development of the economy.