Specifying High Altitude Electrons Using Low‐Altitude LEO Systems: Updates to the SHELLS Model. Issue 3 (27th March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Boyd, A. J.; Green, J. C.; O'Brien, T. P.; Claudepierre, S. G.
• Is Part Of: Space weather. Volume 21:Issue 3(2023)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2023-03-27
• Subjects: space weather -- machine learning -- internal charging -- Van Allen Probes -- POES; Space environment -- Periodicals; 551.509992
• DOI: 10.1029/2022SW003338
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1542-7390

Abstract

Abstract: We describe a new version of the SHELLS model, which specifies the outer electron belt environment as observed by the Van Allen Probes using the Kp Index and data from Polar‐orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites and the Meteorological Operational satellites as inputs. The updated model combines the radial, angular and energy dependence into a single neural network, allowing for specification of the electron environment for a set of user input energy, L‐shell and B mirror values. We demonstrate that the model can accurately reproduce the outer electron radiation belt dynamics using both out‐of‐sample data from the Van Allen Probes and measurements from the Combined X‐ray Dosimeter instrument on GPS. This updated model will provide valuable characterization of the internal charging hazard for non‐GEO orbits, particularly in the post‐Van Allen Probes era. Plain Language Summary: One of the major hazards to satellites from the space environment comes from high energy electrons in the outer radiation belt. However, quantifying this hazard is historically difficult for satellites inside of geosynchronous orbit. Here, we describe a new version of a model that can take measurements at low earth orbit and use them to specify what the electron environment is at a higher orbit. This will enable satellite operators to accurately characterize the internal charging hazard along a variety of orbits, even when onboard measurements are not available. Key Points: We describe enhancements to the SHELLS model, that specifies the outer electron belt environment using Kp index and Polar‐orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites data as inputs The model consists of a single neural network that nowcasts the electron flux at a user specified L‐shell, energy, and B mirror value The SHELLS model demonstrates excellent agreement ( ρ = 0.9) with out‐of‐sample data and measurements from other satellites