Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019. Issue 3 (15th March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xue, Dabin; Yang, Jian; Liu, Zhizhao; Yu, Shiwei
• Is Part Of: Space weather. Volume 21:Issue 3(2023)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2023-03-15
• Subjects: space weather -- economic costs -- communication blackout -- satellite‐based navigation failure -- surveillance failure -- cosmic radiation; Space environment -- Periodicals; 551.509992
• DOI: 10.1029/2022SW003381
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1542-7390

Abstract

Abstract: Space weather can impede normal aviation operations through communication blackouts, GNSS‐based navigation and surveillance failures, and elevated cosmic radiation, consequently resulting in necessary flight plan adjustments and considerable economic costs. Although space weather effects have been heavily emphasized, the literature on the economic effects on aviation is limited. In this study, we estimate the economic impacts from the perspective of air traffic management, assuming an extremely strong space weather event like the 2003 Halloween solar storm would occur in 2019 with a booming air transport industry in recent years. We find that (a) as the high‐frequency communication blackouts may lead to polar flight rerouting and cancellations, possible daily economic costs could range from €0.21 million to €2.20 million per day; (b) during the satellite navigation failure period in the continental United States, as aircraft utilizes ground navigation aids as a backup, the increased flying time and disrupted descent approach operations may lead to additional cost of €2.43 million; (c) a surveillance failure can reduce airspace capacity and increase the workload of air traffic controllers, resulting in fatigue and perhaps risking flight safety; (d) to prevent massive cosmic radiation exposure, the economic costs of flight cancellations can be from €2.77 million to €48.97 million, depending on the cosmic radiation dose limits for a given plan. Our study indicates that severe space weather events may briefly disrupt normal aviation operations and cause substantial economic losses if future aviation equipment and technology are fragile to its effects. Plain Language Summary: Space weather events have the potential to have a significant economic impact on many vital national infrastructure systems, including electricity grids, the oil and gas industry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Particularly, space weather can impair normal aviation operations from high‐frequency communication blackouts, satellite navigation failure, GNSS‐based surveillance failure, and enhanced aviation radiation exposure. Consequently, air traffic management methods are required, and the economic effects of space weather on aviation are inevitable. Due to the lack of actual flight operation data during past space weather events, it is still unclear what the economic losses will be. Therefore, this study tries to estimate the economic costs based on the assumption that a space weather event like the Halloween solar storm of 2003 would occur in 2019. We can conclude that the cost caused by massive cosmic radiation dose is the highest due to flight cancellations. In contrast, the cost caused by satellite navigation failure is the least due to the backup of ground navigation systems. We believe this study can serve as a baseline for future space weather economic implications. Key Points: The consequences of space weather on communication, navigation, surveillance, and cosmic radiation in aviation are explored The aviation economic costs caused by space weather are estimated based on the analysis of the air traffic management system The cost incurred from satellite‐based navigation failure is the least due to the backup of the ground navigation system