Current and future distribution of a parasite with complex life cycle under global change scenarios: Echinococcus multilocularis in Europe. Issue 9 (23rd February 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cenni, Lucia; Simoncini, Andrea; Massetti, Luciano; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Hauffe, Heidi C.; Massolo, Alessandro
• Is Part Of: Global change biology. Volume 29:Issue 9(2023)
• Page Start: 2436
• Page End: 2449
• Publication Date: 2023-02-23
• Subjects: climate change -- Echinococcus multilocularis -- ecosystem health -- environmental niche -- Europe -- global change -- species distribution modelling; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Troposphere -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Eutrophication -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16616
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-1013

Abstract

Abstract: Global change is expected to have complex effects on the distribution and transmission patterns of zoonotic parasites. Modelling habitat suitability for parasites with complex life cycles is essential to further our understanding of how disease systems respond to environmental changes, and to make spatial predictions of their future distributions. However, the limited availability of high quality occurrence data with high spatial resolution often constrains these investigations. Using 449 reliable occurrence records for Echinococcus multilocularis from across Europe published over the last 35 years, we modelled habitat suitability for this parasite, the aetiological agent of alveolar echinococcosis, in order to describe its environmental niche, predict its current and future distribution under three global change scenarios, and quantify the probability of occurrence for each European country. Using a machine learning approach, we developed large‐scale (25 × 25 km) species distribution models based on seven sets of predictors, each set representing a distinct biological hypothesis supported by current knowledge of the autecology of the parasite. The best‐supported hypothesis included climatic, orographic and land‐use/land‐cover variables such as the temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and the precipitation seasonality. Future projections suggested the appearance of highly suitable areas for E. multilocularis towards northern latitudes and in the whole Alpine region under all scenarios, while decreases in habitat suitability were predicted for central Europe. Our spatially explicit predictions of habitat suitability shed light on the complex responses of parasites to ongoing global changes. Abstract : We described the ecological niche of Echinococcus multilocularis, a zoonotic cestode with a complex life cycle, identifying four major drivers of its distribution (temperature of the coldest quarter, forest cover, urban cover and precipitation seasonality) and predicted its current and future distribution in Europe. Our analyses showed an increase in habitat suitability at northern latitudes and in the Alpine region and a loss of suitable areas in central Europe. Our results shed light on how complex life cycle parasites respond to global changes.