Regional ecological forecasting across scales: A manifesto for a biodiversity hotspot. Issue 3 (3rd January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Slingsby, Jasper A.; Wilson, Adam M.; Maitner, Brian; Moncrieff, Glenn R.
• Is Part Of: Methods in ecology and evolution. Volume 14:Issue 3(2023)
• Page Start: 757
• Page End: 770
• Publication Date: 2023-01-03
• Subjects: adaptive management -- biodiversity -- demography -- ecological forecasting -- monitoring -- remote sensing; Ecology -- Periodicals; Evolution -- Periodicals; 577
• DOI: 10.1111/2041-210X.14046
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2041-210X

Abstract

Abstract: Iterative near‐term ecological forecasting has great promise to provide vital information to decision‐makers while improving our ecological understanding, yet several logistical and fundamental challenges remain. The ecoinformatics requirements are onerous to develop and maintain, posing a barrier to entry for regions where funding and expertise are limited, and there are fundamental challenges to developing forecasts that fulfil information needs spanning spatial, temporal and biological scales. Using the hyperdiverse Cape Floristic Region of South Africa as a case study, we propose that developing regionally focussed sets of ecological forecasts will help resolve logistical challenges faced by under‐resourced regions of the world, while comparison or coupling of models across scales will facilitate new fundamental insights. We review information needs and existing models for the region and explore how they could be developed into a set of linked iterative near‐term forecasts. Comparing or coupling ecological forecasts from different scales within the same domain has much potential to provide new insights for decision‐makers and ecologists alike. They allow us to quantitatively link processes in space and time, potentially revealing feedbacks, interconnections and emergent properties, while providing powerful tools for testing decision scenarios and identifying trade‐offs or unanticipated outcomes. While the development of multiple or combined ecological forecasts that span scales is not trivial, there are logistical gains to be made from developing shared ecoinformatics pipelines that feed multiple models. Even where useful forecasts do not yet exist, the pipelines can be of great value in their own right, delivering frequent and up‐to‐date information to decision‐makers while providing the basis for forecast development and other scientific research. Viewed together, regionally focussed approaches to ecological forecasting present a compelling opportunity to overcome logistical constraints and to integrate across multiple scales of organisation, ultimately improving our understanding and management of ecosystems. Isishwankathelo: Uqikelelo oluphindaphindayo lwexesha elikufuphi ngendalo lunesithembiso esikhulu sokubonelela ngolwazi olubalulekileyo kubathathi‐zigqibo ngelixa liphucula ukuqonda kwethu indalo esingqongileyo, ukanti imingeni emininzi yolungiselelo kunye nesisiseko isekho. Inzululwazi ye‐ecoinformatics ineemfuneko ezinzima ukuphuhlisa nokugcina, ezi mfuneko zibeka umqobo ekungeneni kwimimandla apho inkxaso‐mali kunye nobuchule bunqongopheleyo, kwaye kukho imingeni engundoqo ekuphuhliseni uqikelelo oluzalisekisa iimfuno zolwazi oluquka izikali zendawo, ezexesha kunye nezendalo. Sisebenzisa Ummandla waseKapa eMzantsi Afrika kwihlabathi liphela unentlobo ngeentlobo ezininzi zezinto eziphilayo njengomzekelo wophononongo, sicebisa ukuba ukuphuhlisa iiseti zengqikelelo zendalo ezigxile kwingingqi kuya kunceda ukusombulula imiceli mngeni yolungiselelo olujongene nemimandla yelizwe engenazibonelelo, ngelixa uthelekiso okanye ukudityaniswa kwemifuziselo kwizikali ezahlukeneyo iya kuququzelisa ukuqonda okutsha okungundoqo. Sihlola iimfuno zolwazi kunye nemifuziselo ekhoyo kule ngingqi yaseKapa kwaye siphonononga ukuba zingaphuhliswa njani zibe luqikelelo oludityanisiweyo lwexesha elikufuphi. Ukuthelekisa okanye ukudibanisa iingqikelelo zendalo esingqongileyo ezivela kwizikali ezahlukeneyo ngaphakathi kwendawo enye kunesakhono esikhulu sokunika ulwazi olutsha kubathathi‐zigqibo kunye nee‐ngcali zendalo esingqongileyo ngokufanayo. Zisivumela ukuba sidibanise ngokwezibalo iinkqubo kwisithuba kunye nexesha, ezinokutyhila iimpendulo, ukudibanisa, kunye nezinto ezintsha ezivelayo, ngelixa zisinika izixhobo ezinamandla zokuvavanya iimeko yezigqibo kunye nokuchonga kokubuyisana okanye iziphumo ebezingalindelekanga. Ngelixa uphuhliso loqikelelo lwendalo oluphindaphindeneyo okanye oludityanisiweyo lwezikali ezininzi lungabalulekanga kangako, kukho iinzuzo zolungiselelo ekufuneka zenziwe ngokuphuhlisa imifuziselo kwiNzululwazi ye‐ecoinformatics ekwabelwanayo ngayo eyongeza kwi imifuziselo emininzi. Kwanalapho uqikelelo oluluncedo lungekabikho, olu lwazi lunokuba nexabiso elikhulu ngokwalo, ngokuzisa rhoqo ulwazi oluhlaziyiweyo kubenzi bezigqibo ngelixa libonelela ngesiseko sophuhliso lwengqikelelo kunye nolunye uphando lwezenzululwazi. Xa zijongwa kunye, iindlela ezijolise kwingingqi kuqikelelo lwendalo zinika ithuba elinomtsalane lokoyisa imiqobo yolungiselelo kunye nokudibanisa zonke izikali zezinto eziphilayo, ekugqibeleni siphucula ukuqonda kwethu kunye nolawulo lwendalo esingqongileyo.