Time trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in the UK 2009–2018: a retrospective cohort study. Issue 1 (19th March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pal, Kingshuk; Horsfall, Laura; Sharma, Manuj; Nazareth, Irwin; Petersen, Irene
• Is Part Of: BMJ open diabetes research and care. Volume 9:Issue 1(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-03-19
• Subjects: epidemiology -- diabetes mellitus -- Type 2 -- prediabetic state; Diabetes -- Periodicals; 616.462005
• DOI: 10.1136/bmjdrc-2020-001989
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2052-4897

Abstract

Abstract : Introduction: To describe recent trends in the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in people seen in UK general practice. Research design and methods: A retrospective cohort study using IQVIA Medical Research Data looking at people newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes through primary care registers in the UK between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2018. Results: A cohort of 426 717 people were clinically diagnosed with type 2 diabetes and 418 656 people met the criteria for a diagnosis of pre-diabetes in that time period. The incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 person years at risk (PYAR) in men decreased from a peak of 5.06 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 4.97 to 5.15) in 2013 to 3.56 per 1000 PYAR (95% CI 3.46 to 3.66) by 2018. For women, the incidence of clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes per 1000 PYAR decreased from 4.45 (95% CI 4.37 to 4.54) in 2013 to 2.85 (2.76 to 2.93) in 2018. The incidence rate of pre-diabetes tripled by the end of the same study period in men and women. Conclusions: Between 2009 and 2018, the incidence rate of new clinical diagnoses of type 2 diabetes recorded in a UK primary care database decreased by a third from its peak in 2013–2014, while the incidence of pre-diabetes has tripled. The implications of this on timely treatment, complication rates and mortality need further longer term exploration.