Inventory-Based Landscape-Scale Simulation of Management Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility with BioSum. Issue 4 (31st March 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fried, Jeremy S.; Potts, Larry D.; Loreno, Sara M.; Christensen, Glenn A.; Barbour, R. Jamie
• Is Part Of: Journal of forestry. Volume 115:Issue 4(2017)
• Page Start: 249
• Page End: 257
• Publication Date: 2016-03-31
• Subjects: restoration -- feasibility -- fuel treatment; Forests and forestry -- Periodicals; Forests and forestry -- Societies, etc; Forests and forestry -- Terminology; Forests and forestry; Forests and forestry -- Societies, etc; Periodicals; Terminology; 634.905
• DOI: 10.5849/jof.15-087
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-1201

Abstract

Abstract : The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA)-based BioSum (Bioregional Inventory Originated Simulation Under Management) is a free policy analysis framework and workflow management software solution. It addresses complex management questions concerning forest health and vulnerability for large, multimillion acre, multiowner landscapes using FIA plot data as the initial stand conditions to conduct statistically representative analyses and simulations. The system now includes extensive data consistency and integrity checks for analytical quality assurance, access to any measured or calculated stand attribute for defining effective management, and the capacity to project stands forward while allowing multiple, sequential management interventions, with stand metrics calculated at each time step, all available to drive the choice of what is best for each stand. One example of a policy-relevant finding based on this empirical analytic framework is that fire hazard reduction is both more effective and can occur without subsidy in most southern Oregon and northern California forests, provided that some medium-sized trees are removed; another is that harvest residues recovered for energy contribute only modestly to treatment feasibility. Management and Policy Implications The representative sample of the forested landscape provided by Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data is widely acknowledged as both an analytic resource treasure and a challenging data set to use. We developed the BioSum (Bioregional Inventory Originated Simulation Under Management) tool to make the data and the analyses it can enable more accessible to analysts and policymakers. BioSum leverages FIA data to assess the biophysical and economic outcomes, over time and for broad spatial extents, of management alternatives aimed to, for example, reduce fire hazard, by integrating the data with off-the-shelf and custom models and tools. This approach facilitates documented "what-if" reanalysis and exploration through formal scenario building. BioSum integrates the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) stand projection model, a treatment cost estimation model, contemporary and local pricing and merchandising data, and a spatially explicit haul cost accounting system to compare the economic feasibility and efficacy of candidate sequences of silvicultural treatments. It can be used to evaluate whether treatments accomplish forest restoration goals such as reducing stand density to promote forest health, achieving a different species composition, and reducing both surface fuel loading and the ladder fuels that can lead to stand-replacing fires. The system provides broad analytical capacity to address myriad issues, such as the following: although simulated treatments of all forests in Arizona and New Mexico generated positive net revenue in only a small fraction of high hazard forests, BioSum results suggest that with the right treatments, sufficient positive net revenue on some acres could be generated to offset losses on other acres within the same landownership, providing the potential to expand treatments to more than half of the forest area rated hazardous, without additional subsidy; and BioSum quantified the substantial carbon sequestration and substitution potential of fuel treatments in the short to moderate fire-return interval forests common to much of the western United States.