Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014–2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases. Issue 2 (26th January 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 45:Issue 2(2018)
• Page Start: 1069
• Page End: 1078
• Publication Date: 2018-01-26
• Subjects: record warm global temperature -- ocean heat release -- El Niño -- model simulation and projection; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076500
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record‐breaking years (2014–2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse‐gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record‐breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced. Key Points: A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature over the past three consecutive years (2014–2016) was highly unusual It was a result of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat previously accumulated in the western tropical Pacific Large record‐breaking events of global surface temperature are projected to increase in the future unless greenhouse‐gas forcing is reduced