The GLM framework of the Lee–Carter model: a multi-country study. Issue 3 (17th February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Azman, Shafiqah; Pathmanathan, Dharini
• Is Part Of: Journal of applied statistics. Volume 49:Issue 3(2022)
• Page Start: 752
• Page End: 763
• Publication Date: 2022-02-17
• Subjects: Demography -- mortality -- generalized linear model -- Lee–Carter model -- negative binomial; Statistics -- Periodicals; 519.5
• DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2020.1833183
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0266-4763

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The Lee–Carter model is a well-known model in modeling mortality. We aim to compare three probability models (Poisson, negative binomial and binomial) based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of the Lee–Carter model. These models are applied to mortality data for 10 selected countries (Japan, United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, Canada, Netherlands and Bulgaria) and the fit of these models is assessed using the deviance statistics and standardized residuals against fitted value plot. Among these three models, the negative binomial Lee–Carter model gave the best fit based on the deviance statistics and estimates of the log of deaths.