Head-to-head comparison of prognostic models of spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: tools for personalized care and clinical trial in ICH. (1st February 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ji, Ruijun; Wang, Wenjuan; Liu, Xinyu; Wang, Linlin; Jiang, Ruixuan; Zhang, Runhua; Wang, Dandan; Jia, Jiaokun; Feng, Hao; Ding, Zeyu; Liu, Yanfang; Liu, Gaifen; Lu, Jingjing; Ju, Yi; Zhao, Xingquan
• Is Part Of: Neurological research. Volume 44:Number 2(2022)
• Page Start: 146
• Page End: 155
• Publication Date: 2022-02-01
• Subjects: Neurology -- Periodicals; Neurosciences -- Periodicals; 616.8005
• DOI: 10.1080/01616412.2021.1967678
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0161-6412

Abstract

ABSTRACT: To systematically compare 27 ICH models with regard to mortality and functional outcome at 1-month, 3-month and 1-year after ICH. The validation cohort was derived from the Beijing Registration of Intracerebral Hemorrhage. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) ≥3 at 1-month, 3-month and 1-year after ICH, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration. A total number of 1575 patients were included. The mean age was 57.2 ± 14.3 and 67.2% were male. The median NIHSS score on admission was 11 (IQR: 3–21). For predicting mortality at 3-month after ICH, AUROC of 27 ICH models ranged from 0.604 to 0.856. In pairwise comparison, the ICH-FOS (0.856, 95%CI = 0.835–0.878, P < 0.001) showed statistically better discrimination than other models for mortality at 3-month after ICH (all P < 0.05). For predicting poor functional outcome (mRS≥3) at 3-month after ICH, AUROC of 27 ICH models ranged from 0.602 to 0.880. In pairwise comparison with other prediction models, the ICH-FOS was superior in predicting poor functional outcome at 3-month after ICH (all P < 0.001). The ICH-FOS showed the largest Cox and Snell R-square. Similar results were verified for mortality and poor functional outcome at 1-month and 1-year after ICH. Several risk models are externally validated to be effective for risk stratification and outcome prediction after ICH, especially the ICH-FOS, which would be useful tools for personalized care and clinical trial in ICH.