Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming. Issue 2 (19th January 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Dosio, Alessandro; Fischer, Erich M.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 45:Issue 2(2018)
• Page Start: 935
• Page End: 944
• Publication Date: 2018-01-19
• Subjects: 1.5° -- extreme climate -- Europe -- 2°; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076222
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Based on high‐resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact‐relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed‐threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall. Key Points: Compared to 1.5°C, 2°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature (mean, Tn90p, and Tn10p) over more than 70% of European land There is a nonlinear increase of fixed‐threshold indices between 1.5°C and 2° like the number of tropical nights over southern Europe The local change in mean rainfall due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant but often accompanied by a more marked change in its intensity