Probabilistic recovery resilience model of mooring failure accident based on correlated schedule-uncertainty analysis. (15th April 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wu, Jingyi; Yu, Yang; Zeng, Qingze; Wu, Shibo; Zhao, Mingren; Li, Zhenmian; Yu, Jianxing
• Is Part Of: Ocean engineering. Volume 274(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-04-15
• Subjects: Resilience -- Recovery model -- Mooring failure -- Uncertainty -- Gaussian mixture model; Ocean engineering -- Periodicals; Ocean engineering; Periodicals; 620.4162
• DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2023.114035
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0029-8018

Abstract

Abstract: Floating production system (FPS) may face various risks during their service life, among which mooring failure is one of the most disastrous events. In order to assess and quantify the resilience of FPS under mooring failure, it is essential to use reliable restoration fragility models. But for now, there are no available specific recovery models. The main barrier is uncertainty of nature and complexity of recovery actions. This paper aims to take uncertainty of recovery schedule into account and propose recovery models for mooring failure accident. Based on literature review and a detailed questionnaire that elicits knowledge from experts, the restoration schedule and uncertainty are defined and quantified. Through correlated schedule uncertainty analysis model (CSUAM), uncertainty influence on recovery model is measured. And after Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), Gaussian mixture model (GMM) and normal distribution model are introduced to establish probabilistic recovery model of different damage level. Recovery models are then presented and validated for a certain FPS in South China Sea, including restoration task scheduling, seasonal influence, spare availability and two-mobilizations for different damage levels. Highlights: Probabilistic fragility recovery models for FPS under mooring failure is proposed. Correlated schedule uncertainty analysis model is generated. Standardization of damage level based on progressive failure modes of FPS under mooring failure. The effect of physical reality is considered.