Interactions between land and grid development in the transition to a decarbonized European power system. (April 2023) - Guillot, Victor
Abstract: The decarbonization of the European electricity system by 2050 will involve replacing fossil fuels with low-carbon energies, in particular variable renewable energies, coupled with the development of the transmission network to ensure their integration at European scale. As these production modes have a lower energy density, their development will imply an increase in the amount of land dedicated to electricity production. This study investigates the links between an optimal decarbonization of the electricity system, land requirements, and the development strategy of interconnections. We study these interactions using eTIMES-EU, an energy system optimization model, by endogenously taking into account a land variable and testing two interconnection development plans. Our results show that it is possible to limit the land use of the network to its 2020 value for roughly a one percent higher total discounted cost, and that the development of interconnections changes the technologies to be installed on a European scale, but that it requires efficient and ambitious planning. Moreover, our results highlight disparities across countries in terms of space and investment that may constitute barriers to implementing this type of centralized development policy. Highlights: Limited total discounted cost increase in a scenario with no land expansion. Interconnections development modifies land and investments distribution. Cooperation at European scale challenged by opposing national interests.