A long-term forecasting and simulation model for strategic planning of hospital bed capacity. (March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Latruwe, Timo; Van der Wee, Marlies; Vanleenhove, Pieter; Devriese, Joke; Verbrugge, Sofie; Colle, Didier
• Is Part Of: Operations research for health care. Volume 36(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-03
• Subjects: Capacity planning -- Hospital simulation -- Long-term healthcare forecasts -- Inpatient hospital -- DRG; Medical care -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Medical policy -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Health services administration -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Operations research -- Periodicals; Operations Research -- Periodicals; Health Services Research -- Periodicals; Health Policy -- Periodicals; Delivery of Health Care -- Periodicals; 362.106805
• DOI: 10.1016/j.orhc.2022.100375
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2211-6923

Abstract

Abstract: Growing healthcare needs leverage the potential savings of using resources efficiently. To that end, ProMoBed is a comprehensive model that supports strategic planning of bed capacity in inpatient hospitals. The model consists of an extrapolation and simulation component, the former supplying input for the latter. The extrapolation model forecasts admission rates and the average Length of Stay for pathology groups, and corrects for demographic changes. Subsequently, the simulation model emulates the demand for bed capacity, and makes service-level based bed capacity suggestions. Additionally, the model uses the Shapley value principle to disaggregate the effects on demand for inpatient days due to different causes. Results from the extrapolation model are applied to regions in Belgium, showing expected divergence in inpatient day demand evolution.