Uncertainty quantification and optimization method applied to time-continuous geothermal energy extraction. (May 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hoteit, Hussein; He, Xupeng; Yan, Bicheng; Vahrenkamp, Volker
• Is Part Of: Geothermics. Volume 110(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-05
• Subjects: Geothermal reservoirs -- Uncertainty quantification -- Design of experiments -- Time-dependent optimization -- Proxy modeling; Hydrogeology -- Periodicals; Geothermal resources -- Periodicals; Énergie géothermique -- Périodiques; GEOTHERMAL ENGINEERING; GEOTHERMAL ENERGY; GEOTHERMAL EXPLORATION; Geothermal resources; Hydrogeology; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 621.44
• DOI: 10.1016/j.geothermics.2023.102675
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0375-6505

Abstract

Abstract: Uncertainties in static and dynamic subsurface parameters are involved in geothermal field modeling. The quantification of such uncertainties is important to guide field-development alternatives and decision-making. This work presents a novel method for estimating thermal recovery and produced-enthalpy rates, combined with uncertainty quantification and optimization. We use time-continuous, multi-objective uncertainty quantification for geothermal recovery by water re-injection. The uncertainty ranges were determined using a database of 135 geothermal fields. Thermal recovery and produced-enthalpy rates are then evaluated as functions of dimensionless uncertainty parameters. Using the proposed method, a set of 25 geothermal fields are analyzed to determine optimal well spacing. This method quantifies time-continuous uncertainty and global sensitivity for geothermal field modeling undergoing re-injection when detailed subsurface data are not available. Highlights: New workflow to perform time-continuous multi-objectives uncertainty quantification. Data-driven parameter selection based on 135 geothermal fields worldwide. Applied ANCOVA sensitivity indices for time-continuous nested functions. Workflow applied to optimize well spacing for 25 geothermal fields.