Are they reading Schelling in Beijing? The dimensions, drivers, and risks of nuclear-conventional entanglement in China. Issue 1 (2nd January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Logan, David C.
• Is Part Of: Journal of strategic studies. Volume 46:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: 5
• Page End: 55
• Publication Date: 2023-01-02
• Subjects: US-China relations -- nuclear strategy -- escalation risks -- deterrence theory -- crisis management; Strategy -- Periodicals; Military policy -- Periodicals; World politics -- Periodicals; 355.005
• DOI: 10.1080/01402390.2020.1844671
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0140-2390

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Experts increasingly highlight the dangers of nuclear-conventional entanglement, particularly in the U.S.-China context. This article develops a framework for assessing entanglement and its risks. Applying that framework to China, it finds that Beijing's missiles are not as entangled as is sometimes feared, but ongoing trends may increase future entanglement. It also presents evidence that, counter to the prevailing wisdom, Chinese entanglement has not emerged as a strategic policy choice but, rather, as the byproduct of more parochial organizational dynamics. Strategic signaling and perception management will be key to controlling escalation risks stemming from nuclear-conventional entanglement in China.