Emulating and Calibrating the Multiple-Fidelity Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry Magnetosphere–Ionosphere Coupled Computer Model. Issue 1 (27th May 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Heaton, Matthew J.; Kleiber, William; Sain, Stephan R.; Wiltberger, Michael
• Is Part Of: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Volume 64:Issue 1(2015:Jan.)
• Page Start: 93
• Page End: 113
• Publication Date: 2014-05-27
• Subjects: Dimension reduction -- Multivariate computer model -- Multivariate emulator -- Non-additive discrepancy; Statistics -- Periodicals; 519.5
• DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12064
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0035-9254

Abstract

Summary: The Lyon–Fedder–Mobarry global magnetosphere–ionosphere coupled model LFM-MIX is used to study Sun–Earth interactions by simulating geomagnetic storms. This work focuses on relating the multifidelity output from LFM-MIX to field observations of ionospheric conductance. Given a set of input values and solar wind data, LFM-MIX numerically solves the magnetohydrodynamic equations and outputs a bivariate spatiotemporal field of ionospheric energy and flux. Of particular interest here are LFM-MIX input settings required to match corresponding output with field observations. To estimate these input settings, a multivariate spatiotemporal statistical LFM-MIX emulator is constructed. The statistical emulator leverages the multiple fidelities such that the less computationally demanding yet lower fidelity LFM-MIX is used to provide estimates of the higher fidelity output. The higher fidelity LFM-MIX output is then used for calibration by using additive and non-linear discrepancy functions.