Probabilistic Fitts' law and the likelihood of the Tunguska type of event. Issue 1 (March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Suhir, Ephraim
• Is Part Of: Journal of space safety engineering. Volume 10:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: 59
• Page End: 65
• Publication Date: 2023-03
• Subjects: Tunguska meteorite -- Probability of impact -- Asteroid -- Probabilistic Fitts' law; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Space flight -- Periodicals; Space flight -- Safety measures -- Periodicals; Space flight -- Safety regulations -- Periodicals; Astronautics -- Safety measures -- Periodicals; Astronautics -- Safety regulations -- Periodicals; 629.4
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jsse.2022.12.006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2468-8967

Abstract

Abstract: An analogy with the recently suggested probabilistic interpretation of the Fitts' law in the theory of human-computer interactions (HCI) is employed in this analysis to assess the likelihood that a Tunguska type meteorite hits Earth. Two extreme cases are considered: (1) a big asteroid travels within the solar system still far away from Earth (the probabilistic Fitts' law reduces in such a situation to the well-known exponential law of reliability) and (2) the asteroid has become a meteorite and is approaching Earth (the complete double-exponential probabilistic Fitts' law is employed in such a case). The addressed analogy can be used, in addition to other efforts, to design, conduct and interpret an inexpensive, but, of course, highly tentative HCI-theory-based imitation viewed as analogous to the vital space safety related problem.