Negotiating a Future that is not like the Past. Issue 2 (4th March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Elsenbroich, Corinna; Badham, Jennifer
• Is Part Of: International journal of social research methodology. Volume 26:Issue 2(2023)
• Page Start: 207
• Page End: 213
• Publication Date: 2023-03-04
• Subjects: Prediction -- justified stories -- modelling change -- theory -- agent-based modelling; Sociology -- Research -- Periodicals; 300.72
• DOI: 10.1080/13645579.2022.2137935
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-5579

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Agent-based models combine data and theory during both development and use of the model. As models have become increasingly data driven, it is easy to start thinking of agent-based modelling as an empirical method, akin to statistical modelling, and reduce the role of theory. We argue that both types of information are important where the past is not a reliable blueprint for the future, which occurs when modelling dynamic complex systems or to explore the implications of change. By balancing theory and data, agent-based modelling is a tool to describe plausible futures, that we call 'justified stories'. We conclude that this balance must be maintained if agent-based models are to serve as a useful decision support tool for policymakers.