Relationships between agricultural growth and energy consumption in China: Toda–Yamamoto tests. (November 2022) - Zou, Gaolu
Abstract: This article analyzed the causal link between the growth in agricultural output value and total primary energy consumption for both the 1953 to 2020 and 1980 to 2020 periods. The main method applied is the Toda–Yamamoto​ Wald- χ 2 test. Empirical results show that from 1953 to 2020, feedback existed between the growth in agricultural output and energy use. From 1980 to 2020, unidirectional Granger causality existed from energy consumption to the aggregate economy and agriculture. Thus, the study suggests the growth hypothesis in energy economics. In the short-run, agricultural growth will not increase energy consumption. However, strict energy-saving measures in the agricultural sector may curb its growth. During the period after 1980, agricultural energy use efficiency improved. Energy consumption was a short-run determinant of agricultural growth. Highlights: Unidirectional Granger causality existed from energy use to GDP and agricultural growth. Growth hypothesis is suggested for agriculture. In the short-run, agricultural growth will not increase energy consumption.