Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. (May 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Moyer, Jonathan D.
• Is Part Of: World development. Volume 165(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-05
• Subjects: Forecasts -- Integrated assessment models -- Shared socioeconomic pathways -- Conflict -- Poverty -- Sustainable development goals; Economic history -- 1990- -- Periodicals; Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Periodicals; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106188
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0305-750X

Abstract

Highlights: Eliminating intrastate conflict in 2022 would lift 148.2 million (range 50.7 - 186.6) from extreme poverty by 2030. Eliminating intrastate conflict in 2022 would lift 164.9 million (range: 4.4 to 376.5) from extreme poverty by 2050. The economic cost of intrastate conflict from 2022 forward is $28.1 trillion by 2030 and $292.4 trillion by 2050. Conflict-attributable poor are concentrated in 10 countries representing 87.3% of conflict-attributable poor in 2030. Eliminating civil war does not eliminate extreme poverty by 2030 (SDG1) in isolation of other interventions. Abstract: Intrastate conflict generally undermines human development but its effect on global poverty across different income thresholds remains poorly understood. This paper analyzes how many people will live in poverty due to intrastate civil conflict in 2030, 2050, and 2070 using the International Futures model and shared socioeconomic pathways, forecasting 12 scenarios for 179 countries. A baseline conflict scenario leads to an additional 148.2 million (range: 50.7 to 186.0 million) people living in extreme poverty (<$1.90 per day) due to conflict by 2030 compared with a scenario where conflict is eliminated starting in 2022. These conflict-attributable poor represent 20.1% of the population in extreme poverty at that time, with the majority living in South Asia followed by Africa. By 2050 the population living in conflict-attributable poverty increases to 164.9 million (range: 4.4 to 376.5 million), representing 32.7% of the total extremely poor population at that time with the majority living in Africa. While future conflict will be responsible for hundreds of millions of people living in poverty, its elimination is not a panacea for achieving development targets: even in a scenario with no intrastate conflict from 2022 to 2030 the population living in extreme poverty is projected to be 6.9%, well above the target threshold of 3% for achieving the first Sustainable Development Goal .