The role of elections as drivers of tropical deforestation. (March 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Morpurgo, Joeri; Kissling, W. Daniel; Tyrrell, Peter; Negret, Pablo J.; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Allan, James R.
• Is Part Of: Biological conservation. Volume 279(2023)
• Publication Date: 2023-03
• Subjects: Biodiversity threat -- Forest loss -- Governance -- Habitat loss -- Policy -- Democracy; Conservation of natural resources -- Periodicals; Nature conservation -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environmental Pollution -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.9516
• DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2022.109832
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0006-3207

Abstract

Abstract: Tropical forests support immense biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services for billions of people. Despite this value, tropical deforestation continues at a high rate. Emerging evidence suggests that elections can play an important role in shaping deforestation, for instance by incentivising politicians to allow increased utilisation of forests in return for political support. Nevertheless, the role of elections as driver of deforestation has not yet been comprehensively tested at broad geographic scales. Here, we created an annual database from 2001 to 2018 on political elections and forest loss for 55 tropical nations and modelled the effect of elections on deforestation. In total, 1.5 million km 2 of forest was lost during this time period, especially in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and in Southeast Asia. The annual rate of deforestation increased in 37 (67 %) of the analysed countries. Deforestation was significantly lower in years with uncompetitive lower chamber elections compared to competitive election years (i.e. when the opposition can participate in elections and has a legitimate chance to gain governmental power). Our results show a pervasive loss of tropical forests and suggest that competitive elections can be potential drivers of deforestation. Future analyses at higher resolution (intra-annual deforestation and sub-national governance) and simultaneous collection of data on additional mechanisms (legislative changes, financial investments, and binding term limits) will likely provide additional insights into the impacts of elections. We therefore recommend that organisations monitoring election transparency and fairness should also monitor environmental impacts such as forest loss, habitat destruction and resource exploitation. Highlights: Tropical deforestation is continuing to increase in most countries. Uncompetitive election years are associated with lower deforestation than non-election years. Competitive elections are linked with higher forest loss compared to uncompetitive elections. Results suggest that politicians may use natural resources to win elections.