A comprehensive assessment of runoff dynamics in response to climate change and human activities in a typical karst watershed, southwest China. (15th April 2023) - Mo, Chongxun
Abstract: The Chengbi River Basin is a typical karst watershed in Southwest China. Understanding the effects of climate change (CC) and human activities (HAs) on hydrological process is important for regional water resources management and water security. However, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of CC and HAs on runoff dynamics at different time scales in the Chengbi River Basin is still lacking. To address these needs, we used Budyko Mezentsev-Choudhurdy-Yang and Slope change ratio of accumulative quantity methods to assess the contribution of the changing environment to annual and intra-annual runoff changes in the Chengbi River Basin. The results indicated that annual runoff time series was divided into the base phase Ta (1980–1996) and the change phase Tb (1997–2019). Compared to the natural status in Ta, the relative contributions of CC and HAs to the runoff increase in Tb were 154.86% and −54.86%. In addition, the shift in intra-annual runoff occurred in 2007 and was mainly caused by HAs, with a contribution rate of 76.22%. The increase in annual runoff in Tb could be attributed to the positive contribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall and reservoir construction altered the original state of intra-annual runoff. Furthermore, the high degree of heterogeneity in the surface karst zone increased the runoff coefficient. The spatial unsaturation of the subsurface water-bearing media and rainfall patterns caused a significant lag effect in the response of surface runoff to rainfall. This study can help researchers and policy makers to better understand the response of karst runoff to changing environment and provide insights for future water resources management and flood control measures. Highlights: Abrupt change was observed in 1997 for annual runoff and 2007 for intra-annual runoff. The impact of climate change on annual runoff changes exceeds human activities. Human activities are the main causes of intra-annual runoff change. The high degree of heterogeneity in the surface karst zone increased the runoff coefficient.