Impact of prior and projected climate change on US Lyme disease incidence. (22nd November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Couper, Lisa I.; MacDonald, Andrew J.; Mordecai, Erin A.
• Is Part Of: Global change biology. Volume 27:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 738
• Page End: 754
• Publication Date: 2020-11-22
• Subjects: climate change -- disease projections -- Ixodes pacificus -- Ixodes scapularis -- least squares dummy variables -- Lyme disease; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Troposphere -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Eutrophication -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15435
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-1013

Abstract

Abstract: Lyme disease is the most common vector‐borne disease in temperate zones and a growing public health threat in the United States (US). The life cycles of the tick vectors and spirochete pathogen are highly sensitive to climate, but determining the impact of climate change on Lyme disease burden has been challenging due to the complex ecology of the disease and the presence of multiple, interacting drivers of transmission. Here we incorporated 18 years of annual, county‐level Lyme disease case data in a panel data statistical model to investigate prior effects of climate variation on disease incidence while controlling for other putative drivers. We then used these climate–disease relationships to project Lyme disease cases using CMIP5 global climate models and two potential climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We find that interannual variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with climate variation in all US regions encompassing the range of the primary vector species. In all regions, the climate predictors explained less of the variation in Lyme disease incidence than unobserved county‐level heterogeneity, but the strongest climate–disease association detected was between warming annual temperatures and increasing incidence in the Northeast. Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050 (23, 619 ± 21, 607 additional cases), but only under RCP8.5, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase. Significant case changes are not projected for any other region under either climate scenario. The results demonstrate a regionally variable and nuanced relationship between climate change and Lyme disease, indicating possible nonlinear responses of vector ticks and transmission dynamics to projected climate change. Moreover, our results highlight the need for improved preparedness and public health interventions in endemic regions to minimize the impact of further climate change‐induced increases in Lyme disease burden. Abstract : We used a statistical modeling approach to investigate how past climate variation has contributed to Lyme disease incidence in the US, and how future climate change may impact the number of disease cases. We found variation in Lyme disease incidence is associated with some aspect of climate in all US regions with established vector presence, even after controlling for other drivers of disease risk. Our Lyme disease projections indicate that cases in the Northeast will increase significantly by 2050, but only under an upper climate warming scenario, and with large uncertainty around this projected increase.