Dynamical Modeling as a Tool for Inferring Causation. Issue 1 (27th August 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ackley, Sarah F; Lessler, Justin; Glymour, M Maria
• Is Part Of: American journal of epidemiology. Volume 191:Issue 1(2022)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 6
• Publication Date: 2021-08-27
• Subjects: agent-based modeling -- causal inference -- dynamical modeling -- mechanistic modeling -- statistics; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; Public health -- Periodicals; 614.4
• DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab222
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0002-9262

Abstract

Abstract: Dynamical models, commonly used in infectious disease epidemiology, are formal mathematical representations of time-changing systems or processes. For many chronic disease epidemiologists, the link between dynamical models and predominant causal inference paradigms is unclear. In this commentary, we explain the use of dynamical models for representing causal systems and the relevance of dynamical models for causal inference. In certain simple settings, dynamical modeling and conventional statistical methods (e.g., regression-based methods) are equivalent, but dynamical modeling has advantages over conventional statistical methods for many causal inference problems. Dynamical models can be used to transparently encode complex biological knowledge, interference and spillover, effect modification, and variables that influence each other in continuous time. As our knowledge of biological and social systems and access to computational resources increases, there will be growing utility for a variety of mathematical modeling tools in epidemiology.