Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises. Issue 10058 (12th November 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sands, Peter; El Turabi, Anas; Saynisch, Philip A; Dzau, Victor J
• Is Part Of: Lancet. Volume 388:Issue 10058(2016)
• Page Start: 2443
• Page End: 2448
• Publication Date: 2016-11-12
• Subjects: Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine; Medicine; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30594-3
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0140-6736

Abstract

Summary: Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks.