Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Issue 10311 (30th October 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ward, Joseph L; Azzopardi, Peter S; Francis, Kate Louise; Santelli, John S; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sawyer, Susan M; Kassebaum, Nicholas J; Mokdad, Ali H; Hay, Simon I; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdoli, Amir; Abdollahi, Mohammad; Abedi, Aidin; Abolhassani, Hassan; Abreu, Lucas Guimarães; Abrigo, Michael R M; Abu-Gharbieh, Eman; Abushouk, Abdelrahman I; Adebayo, Oladimeji M; Adekanmbi, Victor; Adham, Davoud; Advani, Shailesh M; Afshari, Khashayar; Agrawal, Anurag; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmadi, Keivan; Ahmed, Anwar E; Aji, Budi; Akombi-Inyang, Blessing; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour; Alanzi, Turki M; Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth; Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun; Al-Hajj, Samar; Alhassan, Robert Kaba; Ali, Saqib; Alicandro, Gianfranco; Alijanzadeh, Mehran; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Almasri, Nihad A; Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M; Alonso, Jordi; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa M; Altirkawi, Khalid A; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Saeed; Aminorroaya, Arya; Amit, Arianna Maever L; Amugsi, Dickson A; Ancuceanu, Robert; Anderlini, Deanna; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Androudi, Sofia; Ansari, Fereshteh; Ansari, Iman; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anvari, Davood; Anwer, Razique; Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw; Arabloo, Jalal; Arab-Zozani, Morteza; Ärnlöv, Johan; Asaad, Malke; Asadi-Aliabadi, Mehran; Asadi-Pooya, Ali A; Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi; Ausloos, Marcel; Avenyo, Elvis Korku; Avila-Burgos, Leticia; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina; Ayano, Getinet; Aynalem, Yared Asmare; Azari, Samad; Azene, Zelalem Nigussie; Bakhshaei, Mohammad Hossein; Bakkannavar, Shankar M; Banach, Maciej; Banik, Palash Chandra; Barboza, Miguel A; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Bärnighausen, Till Winfried; Basu, Sanjay; Baune, Bernhard T; Bayati, Mohsen; Bedi, Neeraj; Beghi, Ettore; Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye; Bell, Arielle Wilder; Bell, Michelle L; Benjet, Corina; Bensenor, Isabela M; Berhe, Abadi Kidanemariam; Berhe, Kidanemaryam; Berman, Adam E; Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth; Bhardwaj, Nikha; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhattacharyya, Krittika; Bhattarai, Suraj; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Bijani, Ali; Bikbov, Boris; Biondi, Antonio; Birhanu, Tesega Tesega Mengistu; Biswas, Raaj Kishore; Bohlouli, Somayeh; Bolla, Srinivasa Rao; Boloor, Archith; Borschmann, Rohan; Boufous, Soufiane; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Braithwaite, Dejana; Breitborde, Nicholas J K; Brenner, Hermann; Britton, Gabrielle B; Burns, Richard A; Burugina Nagaraja, Sharath; Butt, Zahid A; Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano; Cámera, Luis Alberto; Campos-Nonato, Ismael R; Campuzano Rincon, Julio Cesar; Cárdenas, Rosario; Carreras, Giulia; Carrero, Juan J; Carvalho, Felix; Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Castelpietra, Giulio; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Cerin, Ester; Chandan, Joht Singh; Chang, Hsing-Yi; Chang, Jung-Chen; Charan, Jaykaran; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Chaturvedi, Sarika; Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine; Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir; Christopher, Devasahayam J; Chu, Dinh-Toi; Chung, Michael T; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Cicuttini, Flavia M; Constantin, Traian Vasile; Costa, Vera Marisa; Dahlawi, Saad M A; Dai, Haijiang; Dai, Xiaochen; Damiani, Giovanni; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Daneshpajouhnejad, Parnaz; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto; Davletov, Kairat; De la Hoz, Fernando Pio; De Leo, Diego; Dervenis, Nikolaos; Desai, Rupak; Desalew, Assefa; Deuba, Keshab; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Dhungana, Govinda Prasad; Dianatinasab, Mostafa; Dias da Silva, Diana; Diaz, Daniel; Didarloo, Alireza; Djalalinia, Shirin; Dorostkar, Fariba; Doshi, Chirag P; Doshmangir, Leila; Doyle, Kerrie E; Duraes, Andre Rodrigues; Ebrahimi Kalan, Mohammad; Ebtehaj, Sanam; Edvardsson, David; El Tantawi, Maha; Elgendy, Islam Y; El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I; Elsharkawy, Aisha; Eshrati, Babak; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Esmaeilnejad, Saman; Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz; Esteghamati, Sadaf; Faro, Andre; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fattahi, Nazir; Feigin, Valery L; Ferede, Tomas Y; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Ferrara, Pietro; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Fisher, James L; Foigt, Nataliya A; Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin; Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich; Foroutan, Masoud; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Gad, Mohamed M; Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji; Gallus, Silvano; Gebre, Teshome; Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gebremeskel, Leake; Gebreslassie, Assefa Ayalew; Gesesew, Hailay Abrha; Ghadiri, Keyghobad; Ghafourifard, Mansour; Ghamari, Farhad; Ghashghaee, Ahmad; Gilani, Syed Amir; Gnedovskaya, Elena V; Godinho, Myron Anthony; Golechha, Mahaveer; Goli, Srinivas; Gona, Philimon N; Gopalani, Sameer Vali; Gorini, Giuseppe; Grivna, Michal; Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Guimarães, Rafael Alves; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Rajeev; Haagsma, Juanita A; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Haile, Teklehaimanot Gereziher; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Haj-Mirzaian, Arya; Hall, Brian J; Hamadeh, Randah R; Hamagharib Abdullah, Kanaan; Hamidi, Samer; Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes; Hanif, Asif; Hankey, Graeme J; Haririan, Hamidreza; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasaballah, Ahmed I; Hashi, Abdiwahab; Hassan, Amr; Hassanipour, Soheil; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hayat, Khezar; Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza; Herteliu, Claudiu; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Ho, Hung Chak; Hole, Michael K; Holla, Ramesh; Hoogar, Praveen; Hosseini, Mostafa; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Mihaela; Hostiuc, Sorin; Househ, Mowafa; Hsairi, Mohamed; Huda, Tanvir M; Humayun, Ayesha; Hussain, Rabia; Hwang, Bing-Fang; Iavicoli, Ivo; Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Ilic, Irena M; Ilic, Milena D; Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja; Intarut, Nirun; Iqbal, Usman; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Islam, M Mofizul; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Iso, Hiroyasu; Ivers, Rebecca Q; Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Jalali, Amir; Janodia, Manthan Dilipkumar; Javaheri, Tahereh; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jenabi, Ensiyeh; Jha, Ravi Prakash; Jha, Vivekanand; Ji, John S; Jonas, Jost B; Jones, Kelly M; Joukar, Farahnaz; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Juliusson, Petur B; Jürisson, Mikk; Kabir, Ali; Kabir, Zubair; Kalankesh, Leila R; Kalhor, Rohollah; Kamyari, Naser; Kanchan, Tanuj; Karch, André; Karimi, Salah Eddin; Kaur, Supreet; Kayode, Gbenga A; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Khalid, Nauman; Khammarnia, Mohammad; Khan, Maseer; Khan, Md Nuruzzaman; Khatab, Khaled; Khater, Mona M; Khatib, Mahalaqua Nazli; Khayamzadeh, Maryam; Khazaie, Habibolah; Khoja, Abdullah T; Kieling, Christian; Kim, Young-Eun; Kim, Yun Jin; Kimokoti, Ruth W; Kisa, Adnan; Kisa, Sezer; Kivimäki, Mika; Koolivand, Ali; Kosen, Soewarta; Koyanagi, Ai; Krishan, Kewal; Kugbey, Nuworza; Kumar, G Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kumar, Nithin; Kurmi, Om P; Kusuma, Dian; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lacey, Ben; Lal, Dharmesh Kumar; Lalloo, Ratilal; Lan, Qing; Landires, Iván; Lansingh, Van Charles; Larsson, Anders O; Lasrado, Savita; Lassi, Zohra S; Lauriola, Paolo; Lee, Paul H; Lee, Shaun Wen Huey; Leigh, James; Leonardi, Matilde; Leung, Janni; Levi, Miriam; Lewycka, Sonia; Li, Bingyu; Li, Ming-Chieh; Li, Shanshan; Lim, Lee-Ling; Lim, Stephen S; Liu, Xuefeng; Lorkowski, Stefan; Lotufo, Paulo A; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Maddison, Ralph; Mahasha, Phetole Walter; Mahdavi, Mokhtar Mahdavi; Mahmoudi, Morteza; Majeed, Azeem; Maleki, Afshin; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mamun, Abdullah A; Mansouri, Borhan; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Martinez, Gabriel; Martinez-Raga, Jose; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Mathur, Manu Raj; Maulik, Pallab K; McGrath, John J; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mehri, Fereshteh; Memiah, Peter T N; Mendoza, Walter; Menezes, Ritesh G; Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Michalek, Irmina Maria; Miller, Ted R; Mini, GK; Mirica, Andreea; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M; Mirzaei, Hamed; Mirzaei, Maryam; Moazen, Babak; Mohammad, Dara K; Mohammadi, Shadieh; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Monasta, Lorenzo; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah; Moraga, Paula; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mosapour, Abbas; Mousavi Khaneghah, Amin; Mueller, Ulrich Otto; Muriithi, Moses K; Murray, Christopher J L; Muthupandian, Saravanan; Naderi, Mehdi; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naghavi, Mohsen; Naimzada, Mukhammad David; Nangia, Vinay; Nayak, Vinod C; Nazari, Javad; Ndejjo, Rawlance; Negoi, Ionut; Negoi, Ruxandra Irina; Netsere, Henok Biresaw; Nguefack-Tsague, Georges; Nguyen, Diep Ngoc; Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi; Nie, Jing; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nnaji, Chukwudi A; Nomura, Shuhei; Noubiap, Jean Jacques; Nowak, Christoph; Nuñez-Samudio, Virginia; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oghenetega, Onome Bright; Oh, In-Hwan; Oladnabi, Morteza; Olagunju, Andrew T; Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola; Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun; Omar Bali, Ahmed; Omer, Muktar Omer; Onwujekwe, Obinna E; Ortiz, Alberto; Otoiu, Adrian; Otstavnov, Nikita; Otstavnov, Stanislav S; Øverland, Simon; Owolabi, Mayowa O; P A, Mahesh; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Pakshir, Keyvan; Palladino, Raffaele; Pana, Adrian; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Pandey, Anamika; Panelo, Carlo Irwin Able; Park, Eun-Kee; Patten, Scott B; Peden, Amy E; Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino; Peprah, Emmanuel K; Pereira, Jeevan; Pesudovs, Konrad; Pham, Hai Quang; Phillips, Michael R; Piradov, Michael A; Pirsaheb, Meghdad; Postma, Maarten J; Pottoo, Faheem Hyder; Pourjafar, Hadi; Pourshams, Akram; Prada, Sergio I; Pupillo, Elisabetta; Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin; Rabiee, Mohammad Hasan; Rabiee, Navid; Radfar, Amir; Rafiee, Ata; Raggi, Alberto; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Ramezanzadeh, Kiana; Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal; Rao, Sowmya J; Rashedi, Vahid; Rastogi, Prateek; Rathi, Priya; Rawaf, David Laith; Rawaf, Salman; Rawal, Lal; Rawassizadeh, Reza; Renzaho, Andre M N; Rezaei, Negar; Rezaei, Nima; Rezai, Mohammad sadegh; Riahi, Seyed Mohammad; Rickard, Jennifer; Roever, Leonardo; Ronfani, Luca; Roth, Gregory A; Rubagotti, Enrico; Rumisha, Susan Fred; Rwegerera, Godfrey M; Sabour, Siamak; Sachdev, Perminder S; Saddik, Basema; Sadeghi, Ehsan; Saeedi Moghaddam, Sahar; Sagar, Rajesh; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Sajadi, S Mohammad; Salem, Marwa Rashad; Salimzadeh, Hamideh; Samy, Abdallah M; Sanabria, Juan; Santric-Milicevic, Milena M; Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Sarveazad, Arash; Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu; Sattin, Davide; Saxena, Deepak; Saxena, Sonia; Schiavolin, Silvia; Schwebel, David C; Schwendicke, Falk; Senthilkumaran, Subramanian; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Sha, Feng; Shafaat, Omid; Shahabi, Saeed; Shaheen, Amira A; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shakiba, Saeed; Shamsi, MohammadBagher; Shannawaz, Mohammed; Sharafi, Kiomars; Sheikh, Aziz; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shetty, B Suresh Kumar; Shi, Peilin; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Jae Il; Shiri, Rahman; Shuval, Kerem; Siabani, Soraya; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig; Silva, Diego Augusto Santos; Silva, João Pedro; Simonetti, Biagio; Singh, Jasvinder A; Singh, Virendra; Sinke, Abiy H; Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich; Slater, Helen; Smith, Emma U R; Sobhiyeh, Mohammad Reza; Sobngwi, Eugene; Soheili, Amin; Somefun, Oluwaseyi Dolapo; Sorrie, Muluken Bekele; Soyiri, Ireneous N; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stein, Dan J; Stokes, Mark A; Sudaryanto, Agus; Sultan, Iyad; Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabuchi, Takahiro; Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar; Taherkhani, Amir; Tamiru, Animut Tagele; Tareque, Md Ismail; Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman; Thapar, Rekha; Thomas, Nihal; Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna; Tonelli, Marcello; Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto; Tran, Bach Xuan; Travillian, Ravensara S; Tsai, Alexander C; Tsatsakis, Aristidis; Tudor Car, Lorainne; Uddin, Riaz; Unim, Brigid; Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran; Upadhyay, Era; Vacante, Marco; Valadan Tahbaz, Sahel; Valdez, Pascual R; Varughese, Santosh; Vasankari, Tommi Juhani; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Villeneuve, Paul J; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasily; Vos, Theo; Vu, Giang Thu; Waheed, Yasir; Wamai, Richard G; Wang, Yafeng; Wang, Yanzhong; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Westerman, Ronny; Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana; Wu, Ai-Min; Wu, Chenkai; Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Seyed Hossein; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaya, Sanni; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid; Yeshitila, Yordanos Gizachew; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa Z; Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh; Yu, Chuanhua; Yu, Yong; Yuce, Deniz; Zaidi, Syed Saoud; Zaman, Sojib Bin; Zamani, Mohammad; Zamanian, Maryam; Zarafshan, Hadi; Zarei, Ahmad; Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich; Zhang, Yunquan; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; Zhao, Xiu-Ju George; Zhu, Cong; Patton, George C; Viner, Russell M;
• Is Part Of: Lancet. Volume 398:Issue 10311(2021)
• Page Start: 1593
• Page End: 1618
• Publication Date: 2021-10-30
• Subjects: Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine; Medicine; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01546-4
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0140-6736

Abstract

Summary: Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.