DEVOLUTION, INDEPENDENCE AND WALES' FISCAL DEFICIT. (2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ifan, Guto; Siôn, Cian; Wincott, Daniel
• Is Part Of: National Institute economic review. Volume 261:Number 1(2022)
• Page Start: 16
• Page End: 33
• Publication Date: 2022
• Subjects: devolution -- independence -- national deficit -- secession -- Wales; H62 -- H77 -- R50; Economic history -- 1945- -- Periodicals; Economics -- Great Britain -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1945-1964 -- Periodicals; 330.941
• DOI: 10.1017/nie.2022.8
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0027-9501

Abstract

Abstract: Debate around Wales' place in the United Kingdom has intensified over recent years, with radically differing visions for the union of the Welsh and UK governments emerging alongside growing (though still minority) support for Welsh independence. This article argues that these constitutional debates must be considered alongside Wales' current fiscal position. Wales' estimated fiscal deficit is reflective of long-standing economic underperformance as part of the UK, which we argue is unlikely to be addressed under current economic, fiscal and constitutional arrangements. On the other hand, it also suggests a difficult economic outlook for an independent Wales, which would require tough fiscal and economic choices to address Wales' apparent balance of payments deficit.