Intensified Warming and Aridity Accelerate Terminal Lake Desiccation in the Great Basin of the Western United States. Issue 1 (12th January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hall, Dorothy K.; Kimball, John S.; Larson, Ron; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Casey, Kimberly A.; Hulley, Glynn
• Is Part Of: Earth and space science. Volume 10:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2023-01-12
• Subjects: Great Basin -- terminal lakes -- Lake Abert -- Great Salt Lake -- Mono Lake -- drought -- MODIS -- snow cover -- evapotranspiration -- land surface temperature; Space sciences -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 500.5
• DOI: 10.1029/2022EA002630
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2333-5084

Abstract

Abstract: Terminal lakes in the Great Basin (GB) of the western US host critical wildlife habitat and food for migrating birds and can be associated with serious human health and economic consequences when they desiccate. Water levels have declined dramatically in the last 100+ years due to diversion of inflows, drought and climate change. Satellite‐derived environmental science data records (ESDRs) from the MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (snow cover, evapotranspiration (ET) and land surface temperature (LST)), enable a unique approach to evaluate the effects of aridification on terminal lakes and to study their individual vulnerabilities. Surface and air temperatures in the GB are rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning around 2011, while the number of days of snow cover is declining especially in the western mountainous part of the GB as exemplified in Mono Basin, California. Rising temperatures coincide with fewer days of snow cover, a decrease of inflow to the lakes and greater evaporation of water from the lakes. MODIS ESDRs show strong and statistically significant increasing surface temperature (LST) in the GB, a reduction in the number of days of snow cover, and mixed results in ET. ET declined slightly in the more arid parts of the GB due to greater moisture restrictions to evaporation from extended drought, while ET increased in the more‐vegetated, wetter, mountainous northeastern parts as temperatures have risen. Severe and costly ecological, human health and economic consequences are expected if the lakes continue to decline as predicted. Plain Language Summary: Terminal lakes in the Great Basin (GB) of the western US host critical wildlife habitat and food sources for migrating birds and can be associated with costly human health and economic consequences when they desiccate. Toxic minerals in the expanding lakebeds may become airborne during windstorms, contributing to air pollution. Satellite data products (snow cover, evapotranspiration and surface temperature) have enabled a unique understanding of the dynamics of aridification in the GB and associated effects on terminal lakes which are usually saline. Surface temperature is rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning around 2011, while snow cover is declining especially in the western mountainous part of the GB as exemplified in Mono Basin, California. Evapotranspiration has declined slightly in lower elevation parts of the GB likely due to a decrease in vegetation there, while it has increased in the wetter, mountainous eastern part as temperatures have risen. Though we recognize that 21 years is not adequate for assessing trends, it is clear that increasing temperatures, greater evaporation of lake water and decreasing number of days of snow cover are contributing to desiccation of terminal lakes, with severe environmental and human health consequences expected. Key Points: MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data products provide a unique way to assess individual vulnerabilities of terminal lakes as temperatures rise in the US West Surface and air temperatures in the Great Basin (GB) are rising dramatically, with a sharp rise in the rate of increase observed beginning ∼2011 ET is generally lower in the GB, exacerbated by drought restrictions on surface evaporation, likely reinforcing regional warming