Upstream Solar Wind Prediction up to Mars by an Operational Solar Wind Prediction System. Issue 1 (23rd January 2023)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wang, Jingjing; Shi, Yurong; Luo, Bingxian; Liu, Siqing; Kong, Linggao; Ma, Jijie; Li, Wenya; Tang, Binbin; Zhang, Aibing; Li, Lei; Shi, Liqin; Zhong, Qiuzhen; Chen, Yanhong
• Is Part Of: Space weather. Volume 21:Issue 1(2023)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2023-01-23
• Subjects: Space environment -- Periodicals; 551.509992
• DOI: 10.1029/2022SW003281
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1542-7390

Abstract

Abstract: Combining the upstream solar wind observations measured by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN), Advanced Composition Explorer(ACE) and Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) from October 2014 to April 2021, we investigate the statistical properties of the background solar wind at Mars and Earth. By applying an operational solar wind prediction system (Wang et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2018025 ) in Space Weather Prediction Center (SEPC), we simulate the solar wind conditions and carry out a comparative analysis with observations to study our model performance. We find that our model is able to simulate the solar wind conditions upstream of Earth and Mars, corresponding to the different heliocentric distances and different levels of solar activity. Furthermore, we apply an event‐based evaluation by analyzing the high speed enhancements (HSEs), and find that the hit rate of HSEs is 70.38% and 66.37% for Earth and Mars, respectively. By predicting the HSEs at Earth (Mars), our model reaches a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 83.93 km/s (65.91 km/s) and 22.98 hr (21.65 hr) for maximum speed and arrival time prediction error, respectively. We also conduct a three‐month case study, from November 2020 to January 2021, analyzing solar wind conditions upstream of Earth, Mars, and measured by Tianwen‐1 (China's first Mars mission), for which our model is capable to predict the upstream solar wind conditions up to Mars. Plain Language Summary: Both solar eruptions and the high‐speed solar wind can disturb interplanetary space and cause geomagnetic storms, which may affect space‐based and terrestrial infrastructure systems and technologies. For satellites orbiting in geospace and even in exploration for Mars, it is important to predict the solar wind and the potential disturbance at Earth and Mars in advance, as well as provide warnings to users of satellite, communication networks, navigation system, and so on. Based on our solar wind prediction system for Earth developed in 2018, we further made necessary modifications to the modules, including boosting the spatial and temporal resolution of the simulations, making adjustments to several empirical parameters in the modules, to meet the needs of forecasting the upstream solar wind up to Mars. By a detailed investigation of the model performance, we find that the new system can both increase the prediction accuracy for the solar wind upstream of Earth, and predict the solar wind up to Mars for the existing and future Mars exploration. Key Points: Upstream solar wind conditions up to Mars have been predicted by an operational solar wind prediction system An event‐based evaluation by analyzing the high speed enhancements (HSEs) for Earth and Mars has been carried out By predicting the HSEs at Mars, our model reaches a MAE of 65.91 km/s and 21.65 hr for maximum speed and arrival time prediction error