Activity level in the hierarchy of propositions in case of the People of the State of California v. Orenthal James Simpson analyzed using Bayesian network. (December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Drábek, J.
• Is Part Of: Forensic science international. Volume 5(2015)
• Page Start: e67
• Page End: e68
• Publication Date: 2015-12
• Subjects: Activity level -- Bayes network -- O.J. Simpson -- Interpretation; Forensic genetics -- Periodicals; Forensic Genetics -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 614.1
• DOI: 10.1016/j.fsigss.2015.09.027
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1875-1768

Abstract

Abstract: DNA profiling usually rests on source or sub-source level in the hierarchy of propositions and when used as evidence for level of activity and offence, much of its seemingly impenetrable power may be lost [1] . Fully Bayesian approach of evidence analysis for higher level propositions is achievable using Bayesian network. However, forensic geneticist alone does not have sufficient data and expertise to perform such analysis in real case scenario. Moreover, they would overstep the role of scientist in the judicial process. With a benefit of hindsight, it is possible to perform such kind of analysis for highly publicised cases. Such case is one of the former professional football star and actor O.J. Simpson who was tried on two counts of murder (of his ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and waiter Ronald Lyle Goldman). Here I present Bayesian network created on the basis of two other Bayesian nets [2, 3] and information from Wikipedia. Five separate Bayesian nets (Motive; Occasion and Escape; Gloves; Knife; and Bloodstains, Hairs, and Fibres) are combined to yield the total likelihood ratio of over seven bans what would change 50% prior to 99.99999% posterior probability of O.J. Simpson stabbing two persons to death.