Forecast of Gross Output Value of Agriculture and Forestry in Guangxi Based on Holt-Winters Model. Issue 1 (January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Li, Run; Li, Xiangmin; Lu, ZhiXiang
• Is Part Of: Journal of physics. Volume 1757:Issue 1(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-01
• Subjects: Holt-Winters -- Guangxi agriculture -- optimal smoothing coefficient -- agricultural forecast; Physics -- Congresses; 530.5
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1757/1/012113
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-6588

Abstract

Abstract: Agriculture and forestry are the source of food, clothing and subsistence for human beings and also the primary conditions for all production. The forecast of the gross output value of agriculture and forestry directly affects the purchasing, pricing and storage of important plans in the agricultural sector. This paper collects quarterly data from 2012 to 2020 in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and uses the Holt-Winters prediction model based on the multiplication to fit the historical data. The model was validated by calculating the optimal smoothing coefficient through the minimum residual sum of squares, making predictions and comparing actual values for the data from 2018 to 2020. Finally, the model was used to derive future forecasts for agriculture and forestry from 2020 to 2022, and recommendations for agricultural development were made based on the forecasts.