Effect of enforcement operations during festive seasons called Ops Sikap on road traffic accidents of Malaysia. Issue 1 (February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Darma, Y; Karim, M R; Abdullah, S
• Is Part Of: IOP conference series. Volume 1087:Issue 1(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-02
• Subjects: Materials science -- Periodicals; 620.1105
• DOI: 10.1088/1757-899X/1087/1/012029
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1757-8981

Abstract

Abstract: The road safety statistics have shown a remarkable increase in number of injuries during the festive seasons in Malaysia. To anticipate the burden of the injuries, the police has carried out an advanced enforcement operations called "Ops Sikap" since 2001. Evaluations on the effectiveness of the operations are, however, found inconclusive. This study employed ARIMA and intervention model to further evaluate the effect of the Ops Sikap. The effect of an intervention on the number of accidents is measured using the pulse function. ARIMA model is used to forecast the series without such intervention and become the basis for the ARIMA(p, d, q) process of the intervention model. Forecasted accidents from the intervention model are then compared with the ARIMA one to attain how far the effect. The results show that the operations have reduced the number of accidents in many years. Out of twenty five Ops Sikap carried out, fourteen times (56%) have successfully brought the accidents down. The operations have provided the reduction of the monthly accidents up to 0.7% as compared with the accidents if there were no such operations taken.