The infection and recovery periods of the 2022 outbreak of monkey-pox virus disease. (1st December 2022)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Al-Raeei, Marwan
• Is Part Of: IOP SciNotes. Volume 3:Number 4(2022)
• Publication Date: 2022-12-01
• Subjects: infection period -- recovery period -- monkey pox virus disease -- disease forecasting -- pandemic -- epidemic models -- simulation; 500
• DOI: 10.1088/2633-1357/aca4ad
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2633-1357

Abstract

Abstract: The Monkey-pox virus disease (MPXD) is a type of the pox disease similar to the smallpox disease. This disease produces rashes with lesions on the skin. The MPXD is an endemic in some countries of Africa, however, a recent outbreak of this disease started to appear in some countries, such as the United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Australia, Brazil, and the United States. Lots of indicators are employed for forecasting the 2022 outbreak of the MPXD such as the infection period, the recovery period, the force of infection, the incubation period of the disease…..etc. The aim of this study is finding the infection period, and the recovery period of the 2022 outbreak of the monkey-pox virus disease in two countries: the United States, and Spain. We apply the simulation and analytical methods on a simple epidemic model, which is the SIRD infectious disease model, for finding the previous periods. We found that the infection period of the recent outbreak of the MPXD varies from 10 days to 20 days, while we found that the recovery periods of the recent outbreak of the MPXD varies from 15 days to 30 days. Besides, we found that the average value of the infection period of the 2022 outbreak of the MPXD is about two weeks, and the average value of the recovery period of the 2022 outbreak of the MPXD is about three weeks. The analytical solution with the simulation algorithm which we used in this study can be expanded for other forecasting parameters of the MPXD, and also for multiple countries.