Using integrated Bayesian-Petri Net method for individual impact assessment of domino effect accidents. (20th April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Dueñas Santana, Julio Ariel; Orozco, Jesús Luis; Febles Lantigua, Dainelys; Furka, Daniel; Furka, Samuel; García Cruz, Ariel
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 294(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-04-20
• Subjects: Bayesian networks -- Petri nets -- Domino effect -- Industrial accidents -- Hydrocarbon storage -- Individual impact; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126236
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: One of the aims of Cleaner Production refers to the reduction of risks for the human population. Domino effect accidents trigger the worst consequences in process industries. To date, several techniques and models have been used for predicting domino effect probability, such as Bayesian networks and Petri Nets. In addition, these methodologies can be combined with other classical ones, for instance, Event and Fault Trees. However, there is no mentioned methodology in specialized literature which accurately combines them in order to predict the individual impact of domino effect accidents. This paper focuses on the quantification of the individual impact of domino effect scenarios using an Integrated Bayesian- Petri Net method. For this purpose, a model of seven steps is proposed based on a combination of proven methods to obtain a new one with the advantages of both graphical structures, including the ability to minimize their limitations. To prove the validity of the new model, this model and other three ones are applied in a hydrocarbon storage area as well. The application of the proposed model in this area allows to reduce the incident occurrence by 59%. That is why we can assure that the proposed study is vital for preserving resources and minimizing risk to individual's life in hydrocarbon facilities. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: Integrated Bayesian-Petri Net Method is developed for quantifying injuries. The application in a hydrocarbon area results in higher hazardous levels. The proposed model allowed to reduce the incident occurrence by 59%. Domino effect probabilities include the overall effects of accidents. The domino effect worsens the consequences of the accident over people.